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DAILY MARKET REVIEW
Daily Market Review By Michael Clark


July 29th, 2010


Fundamental News: Beige Book released yesterday by the Fed didn’t get a warm reception as it confirmed signs given by a broad range of macroeconomic indicators. Initial claims climbed last week to 464k, not leaving much room for comfort ahead of the monthly payrolls due next Friday. This week the markets consensus assumes an improvement but merely by 4k. During the Friday’s Asian trade investors will look for the package of the Japanese macro, including CPI, output, PMI and unemployment rate.

EUR/USD: The U.S. dollar continued its downward spiral following the release of worse-than-expected durable good orders. Orders fell for the second straight month in June, posting their biggest decline since August, when an increase in orders was anticipated. This data compounded fears about the struggling U.S. economic outlook. The pair continued trading on the sideway as we witness a hard time in achieving the breach of 1.3030 and 1.3065, but at the same time we see that the pair has still stabilized in trading.
 Trading above key support for the ascending channel at 1.2915 will maintain chances of the bullish trend continuing to test levels around 1.3115 then 1.3280. Stochastic is showing a positive crossover that is trying through it to trade above 50 points, insuring our expectations.

GBP/USD: The British pound remained at a 5-month peak against the dollar despite dovish comments from the Bank of England, which did little to diminish optimism about the UK economic outlook after a run of encouraging data. The pair continues the bullish trend within the bullish channel shown above, as the pair is closely nearing key resistance for the main ascending channel, accompanied by overbought signs through the RSI. These expectations support the bearish candlestick formations that have appeared on the daily chart near the 50% correction; the bearish trend correction that has started on August 5,2009 and ends on May19, 2010 appearing in the image above. The bearish correction is expected to occur today that will cause the pair’s trading to fail above 1.5700. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5460 and the key resistance at 1.5805.

USD/CAD: With no major Canadian data scheduled to be released today, the Canadian dollar remained range bound against the USD. With oil and gold prices lower over the past few days, the loonie’s upside has been limited. The Canadian Dollar weakened against the Dollar after a drop in crude oil prices increased speculation that demand will wane for currencies of nations that are dependent on commodities for growth. As long the USD/CAD is below 1.0450 levels, the momentum is bearish. The next support is located at 1.0240. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0298 and with a high of 1.0390.

USD/JPY: The Yen strengthened versus the Dollar as orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell last month and the Federal Reserve said economic growth slowed in some areas. Retail Sales came out at 3.2% vs. 3.3% forecast. The main resistance of the USD/JPY on the daily chart is 89.20 level ,as long it's trading below this level a short position is preferred, the next support is located at 86.20. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 87.25 and with a high of 88.11.

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