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WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW


The Trading Week

In the upcoming week here are some major events to keep in mind when preparing for this week's market.

The week started with weakness in the dollar, including Sunday gaps in some currency pairs. Today’s main event is a double-feature trade balance release in the US and Canada. Let’s see what’s up for today


Emerging markets are attracting more money from initial public offerings than industrialized nations for the first time ever, a warning sign to Mark Mobius that the record rally in the shares may turn into a 20 percent decline.


Moore Capital Management LP, the $14 billion hedge-fund firm run by Louis Moore Bacon, hired Jean- Philippe Blochet, a founding partner of Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, as a senior portfolio manager based in London.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., which repaid bailout funds five months before its competitors, is leading again in the next test of bank fitness: restoring dividends cut last year amid the credit crisis.

The Bank of England should pause its bond-purchase plan after completing the current 200 billion- pound ($323 billion) tranche as the economy shifts toward a recovery, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

Governments around the world need to address excessive budget deficits in order to reassure investors, as the global economic recovery continues, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday.

Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said the central bank should end its purchases of mortgage debt as planned in March because the private market for the securities is "healing," Bloomberg News reported on its Web site Monday.

This week ahead sees less of a fashion retail focus and more of a hard-end retail focus as DSG International owner Curry's and PC World along with Home Retail Group, who run Homebase and Argos reporting results inclusive of Christmas trading.

Cadbury Plc's union, Unite, will warn MPs on Tuesday that a potential bidding war for the chocolatier will further undermine worker rights.

Venezuelan consumers are rushing to buy flat screen televisions before prices jump, while U.S. companies including Colgate-Palmolive Co. brace for profit declines after President Hugo Chavez devalued the currency.


Japan's low interest rates may persist until next year because of a poor outlook for the world's second-largest economy, a senior official from the Bank of Japan said Monday.


The leading share index ended flat on Monday with strength in energy issues countered a sell-off in miners, weak financial issues and uncertain progress on Wall Street

The Australian dollar fell in Asia trade Tuesday and bond futures rose as a weak reading on housing finance contracts protruded a round of risk aversion. Hurt by higher interest rates and the withdrawal of government grants for new home buyers recently, Australian housing finance contracted for a second successive month in November.


Gold, trading little changed in Asia, may reach its highest level in more than a month on speculation the dollar will continue to weaken, fueling demand for the precious metal. Platinum climbed to a 17-month high.

The dollar rose against some higher- yielding currencies after China signaled a move toward raising interest rates and Alcoa Inc. posted profit that trailed forecasts, spurring demand for the safety of the U.S. currency. The dollar gained the most against the South Korean won and the Norwegian krone after an official at China’s sovereign wealth fund said today he saw an end to the currency’s recent decline. Australia’s dollar retreated from near a seven-week high after a report showed home-loan approvals declined in November more than economists forecast. The yen advanced against all 16 most-traded currencies


The trade deficit in the U.S. probably widened in November as imports climbed faster than exports, economists said before a report today. The gap grew to $34.6 billion during the month from $32.9 billion in October, according to the median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Increases in spending by American businesses and consumers indicate demand for foreign goods will keep growing in coming months. At the same time, a 12 percent drop in the dollar and growing economies overseas mean U.S. sales abroad by companies such as United Parcel Service Inc. and United Technologies Corp. may also rise, giving factories and the economy a lift.

European stocks declined for a second day and U.S. index futures dropped after earnings from Alcoa Inc. missed analysts’ estimates. Asian shares gained.


USD/JPY 92.43 is broken and we advised to stay neutral in this case. However, the last lowest allow us to draw a bullish channel in which the parity is moving. So, we will now advise to trade only long positions as far as it is the case. The break out of 92.43 will give a new buy signal. However, if an exit of the channel occur, a sell signal will be given and we will advise to trade only short positions towards 91.12.


Pound/Dollar has formed a new bullish trend on the 15 minutes chart, while still trading neutral on the 1 hour chart, and downward on the 3 hour, where quotes are testing the upper limit of the descending channel at 1.6228. Upward penetration of the above level may seriously shake the bearish outlooks, while staying within the channel should keep the bears' domination intact, with next objectives towards 1.6028, followed by 1.5898. The nearest resistance is yesterday's top at 1.6148. Immediate support is Monday's bottom at 1.6028. The CCI indicator is neutral on the 1 hour chart, suggesting calm range trading.


China’s central bank guided its benchmark one-year bill yield higher for the first time in 20 weeks, causing bank and property stocks to decline as the government reins in record credit growth. The People’s Bank of China sold the bills at a yield of 1.8434 percent, an increase of eight basis points, according to a statement on the central bank’s Web site. BNP Paribas SA brought forward its forecast for China’s first interest-rate increase this year to the second quarter and said the central bank may raise lenders’ reserve requirements by 50 basis points in February.



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